The Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship market was worth an estimated $1.5bn USD in 2020 and is projected to be worth $5.3bn by 2025. But how is that market currently broken down and how will each of those market sectors grow over the next five years? The MASS market is broken down into eight sectors; defence, autonomous and remote vessel management, unmanned workboats, decision support systems, surface drones, unmanned merchant ships, and autonomous vessel construction and design. Below, we have outlined each of those sectors, their contribution to the overall market, and our forecast of their growth trajectory. This analysis is based on a group of 74 commercial organisations operating in this sector.

Defence

The defence sector is characterised by a small number of large contractors that have been operating for much of the last century. Major players in this space include L3 Harris, BAE Systems, and Rafael Advanced Defence Systems. The US Navy was the most active customer operating in this space through 2020, issuing several large contracts for the construction of unmanned surface vessels including a $42million contract awarded to six US defence contractors.

Sector statistics 2020:

• 45.7% of total market size by turnover
• 16.2% of total market by number of companies
• Estimated turnover in 2020: $703 million

Sector Statistics 2025:

• 39.4% of total market size by turnover
• Estimated turnover in 2025: $2,077 million

Autonomous and remote vessel management

This is a nascent emerging sector that is built on top of the wider autonomous surface shipping market. Third-party vessel management is already a well-established market for conventional ships. A small number of companies have begun operating in this sector, offering a third-party ship management service that includes remote operation and monitoring for unmanned vessels and vessels with a reduced crew.

The most prominent company operating in the sector is Massterly, a spinout of Wilhelmsen and Kongsberg. But there is a growing number of startups now operating in the sector, mainly focused on the European inland waterways market.

Sector statistics 2020:

• 0.5% of total market size by turnover
• 6.7% of total market by number of companies
• Estimated turnover in 2020: $7.5 million

Sector Statistics 2025:

• 3.9% of total market size by turnover
• Estimated turnover in 2025: $207 million

Unmanned workboats

The unmanned workboat space is a relatively well-developed sector, with high profile startups such as Sea Machines Robotics generating significant publicity for the technology. There are a large number of potential use cases for unmanned workboats in ports and harbours including surveying, pollution control, and security.

The clear use cases coupled with the relatively low cost of converting existing workboats for remote and autonomous operation, there is a clear and high growth market for the technology.

Sector statistics 2020:

• 6.6% of total market size by turnover
• 9.4% of total market by number of companies
• Estimated turnover in 2020: $101.6 million

Sector Statistics 2025:

• 11.8% of total market size by turnover
• Estimated turnover in 2025: $623 million

Supporting technology

The supporting technology sector includes companies developing hardware specifically for the maritime sector to support autonomy such as lidar or radar systems. Though all autonomous systems require specialist hardware to function, the rapid adoption of other types of autonomous vehicles has created a highly competitive market for generic autonomy hardware. Even in the maritime industry, developing components and supporting hardware for autonomy will likely become a high volume, low margin sector.

Sector statistics 2020:

• 6.7% of total market size by turnover
• 10.8% of total market by number of companies
• Estimated turnover in 2020: $102.6 million

Sector Statistics 2025:

• 11.8% of total market size by turnover
• Estimated turnover in 2025: $207.8 million

Decision Support Systems

Though many projects are running to build unmanned merchant ships, the market for decision support systems to aid manned ships is larger, has less regulatory hurdles, and fits better with the industry’s current operating model. There is already an established market for intelligent navigation systems that has evolved out of the development of ECDIS.

Companies such as Wartsila, Totem Plus, and Kongsberg are all active in this space. They have been joined by a raft of startups building for the sector in the last few years including Sailplan, BlkSail, Orca, and Shone.

Sector statistics 2020:

• 13.3% of total market size by turnover
• 13.5% of total market by number of companies
• Estimated turnover in 2020: $203.6 million

Sector Statistics 2025:

• 19.7% of total market size by turnover
• Estimated turnover in 2025: $1,039.8 million

Surface Drones

There is a clear use case for surface drones, in ports and for deep-sea ocean sensing. But the relatively low barriers to entry, lack of regulation, and widespread availability of robotics technologies make it a highly competitive market. More than a quarter of all of the companies operating in this sector offer surface drones, but these companies contribute only 7% of the market’s turnover.

It is worth noting, however, that significant venture investment has been pumped into this sector, with Saildrone alone raising more than $90million in funding.

Sector statistics 2020:

• 7.0% of total market size by turnover
• 25.7% of total market by number of companies
• Estimated turnover in 2020: $107.8 million

Sector Statistics 2025:

• 7.1% of total market size by turnover
• Estimated turnover in 2025: $374.0 million

Unmanned Merchant Ships

We are yet to see a full-size unmanned merchant ship begin operating anywhere in the world. There are a number of projects in the pipeline, but they are all currently in the design, construction and testing phases. Even where there are projects under construction, significant regulator barriers remain in place for full-scale operation. Manned autonomy, enabled by decision support systems is a much stronger growth opportunity to 2025.

Sector statistics 2020:

• 0.5% of total market size by turnover
• 25.7% of total market by number of companies
• Estimated turnover in 2020: $7.6 million

Sector Statistics 2025:

• 2.4% of total market size by turnover
• Estimated turnover in 2025: $124.6 million

Vessel construction and design

Currently, many of the high profile and large scale autonomy projects are at the construction and design phase. In addition to projects that make it to the construction phase, there is a relatively large number of concept design commissions. Companies including Vard, Wartsila, and ABB lead in this space alongside a significant number of smaller design and naval architecture consultancies. 

Sector statistics 2020:

• 19.7% of total market size by turnover
• 12.2% of total market by number of companies
• Estimated turnover in 2020: $302.5 million

Sector Statistics 2025:

• 11.8% of total market size by turnover
• Estimated turnover in 2025: $623.3 million

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