This report, market landscape, and market sizing covers any technology that enables either the remote operation or automation of navigational decision making for surface vessels of any size. Vessels that operate underwater are specifically excluded. The autonomous shipping market can be broadly split into six segments; surface drones, workboats, autonomous and remote operated ships, decision support systems, enabling technologies, and autonomous vessel management and support.

There are 50 commercial organisations worldwide building technology or services to support remotely operated and autonomous vessels. 42% of them are startups and 37% of them are SMEs. There are a growing number of corporate entities building technology for the sector, all of whom are already original equipment manufacturers for the maritime or defence sectors. Since 2010, $113million of venture capital has been invested in startups developing unmanned and autonomous vessel technologies. The best funded startup in the sector is California based Saildrone, having raised $88.5million across four funding rounds. The median average funding raised by startups in the sector is $2.6million.

Worldwide, there are 2,775 patents registered related to unmanned or autonomous surface ship technologies. 96% of patents were registered in China, with the majority of those registrations happening after 2014.  Chinese autonomous technology manufacturer Powervision is the most active patent applicant, though there is a large volume of patent activity coming from Chinese academic institutions.

Though there is a clear business case and limited legal barriers to the drone and small vessel market, there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the development and rollout of autonomous technology for larger merchant ships. The IMO has developed a framework for MASS trials, which has been used to conduct autonomous tests on full sized ships, there is currently no clear path to a wider commercial rollout of the technologies being tested.

It is estimated that today the global MASS market is worth $1.5 billion annually. The market is predicted to grow to be worth $5.6 billion by 2025, a CAGR of 28%. Most of the growth will be driven by the survey and workboat market, with small vessels and drones providing a clear business case for adoption.

Introduction to Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship Technology

Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship (MASS) technology has become the focus of a great deal of media attention in the last few years, but there is little consensus on how widely the technologies will be adopted by industry and where they will have the biggest impact. Further, there is little consensus on what constitutes MASS technology.

For the purposes of this report, any technology that enables either remote operation or automation of navigational decision making for surface vessels of any size is included as MASS technology. This includes drones and small robotic craft, right through to decision support systems on manned merchant vessels.

Rather than any one technology, this ecompasses a raft of complementary technologies that make up the market. Vessels that operate underwater are not included in this report, the market landscape, or the market sizing.

Market Overview

The autonomous shipping market can be broadly split into six segments; drones, workboats, autonomous and remote operated ships, decision support systems, enabling technologies, and autonomous vessel management and support services. Though many companies are building technology to support the development of autonomous and unmanned full size vessels, there are a relatively large number of providers building small surface drones that support a wide variety of use cases in ports and at sea including pollution management, survey work, oceanographic research, and offshore support. For the operation of full sized ships, there is a growing ecosystem of providers including those companies developing and operating vessels themselves, companies developing specific technologies that support autonomy such as lidar or computer vision systems, and service business offering autonomous and unmanned vessel management and support.

Drones and Remotely Operated Systems

Like unmanned aerial vehicles, there are countless potential use cases for autonomous or remotely operated surface drones and small boats at sea. California based Saildrone has developed a fleet of fully autonomous sailing drones that offer “mission as a service” oceanographic survey work. Each of their drones is equipped with sensors to measure multiple environmental factors in air and water and use a wind propulsion system that enables a mission endurance of c.12 months. Similarly, UK based Autonaut uses under keel foils to propel their drones using wave motion, which again means the vessels can conduct survey work for months at a time without fossil fuels or human input.

The zero emission drone market is well developed, with Saildrone already taking a dominant market position, but there is a second emerging field in this sector. Small remotely operated or autonomous drones are increasingly being tested for everything from port hydrographic surveys to security and surveillance work. Netherlands based Aquasmart XL has developed a remote control surface drone that is being deployed throughout the Port of Rotterdam to conduct structural surveys and 3D modelling of port assets for predictive maintenance programmes and engineering support in hard to reach or dangerous areas in the port. Similarly, operating out of the port city of Trondheim, Maritime Robotics has developed a suite of remotely operated drones equipped with sensors that enable hydrographic survey work in ports and coastal environments.

Workboats

One of Maritime Robotics’ products is a conversion kit to transform a traditional workboat into an unmanned or remote controlled vessel. Sea Machines Robotics has also gone down this route, developing systems that allow the conversion of a traditional workboat. Their remote control and autonomous operation systems allow for the conversion of a wide range of boats including survey boats, patrol boats, ferries, tugboats, fireboats, and other utility boats. Taking this concept one step further, Sea-Kit has developed custom built 12m and 22m unmanned boats that are capable of carrying small loads of cargo, acting as a mothership for unmanned aerial and underwater drone operations, and conducting survey work including pipeline inspections. Sea-Kit conducted the world’s first commercial unmanned crossing of the North Sea in May 2019, delivering a cargo of Oysters from West Mersea, UK to Oostende, Belgium.

To date, workboats have been a central focus of corporate providers too. Wartsila, Kongsberg, and ABB have all been directly involved in the development of autonomous and remote control tugs. Trials have been conducted in partnership with Kotug Smit in Copenhagen, and PSA in Singapore. Abu Dhabi Ports are planning to build a fleet of unmanned tugs in partnership with Robert Allan Ltd that will be remotely operated from a shore centre.

Merchant Ships

As well as small vessel conversion kits, Sea Machines Robotics is also developing an autonomous control system for the full sized merchant vessel and cruise market. The system is currently being trialled by Maersk on their new Ice Class fleet. It is still unclear exactly how the full sized autonomous vessel market will evolve, with various operating and business models currently being trialled across the market. There are a number of established marine hardware original equipment manufacturers developing solutions in the space. Before exploring the autonomous ship market, it’s important to understand the difference between an autonomous ship and an unmanned ship and the levels of autonomy outlined by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Autonomous doesn’t mean unmanned, and equally an unmanned ship is more likely to be manually operated remotely rather than operating in a fully autonomous mode. The IMO has established four degrees of autonomy to support the development of the market:

• Degree one: Ship with automated processes and decision support: Seafarers are on board to operate and control shipboard systems and functions. Some operations may be automated and at times be unsupervised but with seafarers on board ready to take control.
• Degree two: Remotely controlled ship with seafarers on board: The ship is controlled and operated from another location. Seafarers are available on board to take control and to operate the shipboard systems and functions.
• Degree three: Remotely controlled ship without seafarers on board: The ship is controlled and operated from another location. There are no seafarers on board.
• Degree four: Fully autonomous ship: The operating system of the ship is able to make decisions and determine actions by itself.

The most high profile project to build and run a full sized unmanned commercial ship is a joint venture by Kongsberg and fertiliser manufacturer Yara to build a fully electronic autonomous ship that will eventually run unmanned between ports in Norway. The completed hull for the Yara Birkeland has been delivered to Norway, but construction has been paused due to the Covid-19 pandemic.The long term goal of the Yara Birkeland team is to operate the vessel at degree four of autonomy, but it will likely be some years before the vessel is able to operate higher than degree two.

In 2019, the 78,000 GRT car carrier Iris Leader conducted the world’s first trial of an autonomous system using the IMO’s guidelines on the operation of autonomous ships. This was a test of degree one autonomy, with collision avoidance and navigation processes automated while the ship was fully manned. The vessel, operated by leading Japanese carrier NYK Line, was equipped with a system built by Japan Marine Science Inc, a wholly owned technology subsidiary of the ship operator.

Decision Support Systems

More common than fully automated collision avoidance is decision support. A number of startups around the world are developing decision support tools for navigation. Operating out the west coast of the USA, Shone has developed a system that acts as a “co-pilot” for the officer of the watch, using artificial intelligence to support decision making on the bridge. The system is being trialled on board CMA CGM ships. Shone is now developing a similar system for use in the ship’s engine control room. In Israel, Orca AI is working on a decision support system that combines data from multiple systems on board including AIS, Radar, ECDIS, and computer vision into a single user interface that improves situational awareness for officers on the bridge. Also in Israel, is Totem Plus, an SME provider of ECDIS, bridge management, and collision avoidance systems. Their Decision Support Tool pulls data from various sources and uses a mathematical interpretation of the collision regulations to recommend course and speed changes to the officer of the watch.

Remote and Autonomous Ship Management

As the potential of remotely operated and autonomous vessels is explored, a small number of supporting service businesses have been established. Traditional ship management businesses charge a fee to a shipowner or charterer to provide crewing, maintenance, spares, and supplies to a ship. Though autonomous ship management companies will likely operate on a similar model, it is not yet known exactly how that will work in practice, with no precedent yet established by any operator. Ship management services for the Yara Birkeland will be provided by Massterly, a new joint venture between Kongsberg and Wilhelmsen Ship Services to provide autonomous and unmanned vessel ship management. Focussing on Europe’s inland waterways is Zulu Associates, another joint venture, this time between Blue Line Logistics and Anglo Belgian Shipping Company. Zulu Associates has been set up to provide ship management and shore control centres for inland vessels and barges.

Supporting technology and hardware

The final market segment to consider is manufacturers of technologies that enable autonomous systems to operate. Manufacturing sensors that will work with little to no maintenance in a maritime environment requires special consideration from the design phase through to manufacture and distribution. Lidar is a key technology required for the operation of autonomous ships, particularly during port operations, mooring, or close quarters navigation. Ladar Ltd, a technology SME based in Anguilla has developed a lidar system specifically aimed at the maritime and offshore market. The system can track the movement of objects including vessels, ice flows, oil spills, and humans. Further, it can monitor the sea state, the water column, and the seafloor. Spanish technology startup Beamagine has developed a lidar solution aimed at sectors that require high point cloud density in real time, their solution is deployed across the maritime, aviation, space, and rail sectors.

Market Landscape

There are 50 commercial organisations worldwide building technology or services to support remotely operated and autonomous vessels. 42% of them are startups and 37% of them are SMEs. We are yet to see any companies achieve growth that supports them becoming a scaleup, and there are a small number of large corporate entities building technology for the sector, all of whom are already original equipment manufacturers for the maritime or defence sectors.

Startup Providers

Company Name*	Employee Count*	Company Founded Year	Company short summary*	Company City*	Total Funding	Company URL*	Estimated Revenue
Saildrone	51-250	2014	Ocean data platform for science research, sustainable fisheries management, and weather forecasting, powered by a fleet of USV’s called Saildrones.	Alameda, CA, USA	$88,500,000	saildrone.com	$10M-$50M
Ocean Infinity	51-250	2017	Operating marine robots in oceans worldwide: acquiring, analysing and expanding our unrivalled knowledge of the seafloor. Providing answers.	Houston, TX, USA		oceaninfinity.com	$10M-$50M
Sea Machines Robotics	11-50	2014	Autonomous technology company that specializes in advanced control technology for workboats and other commercial surface vessels. Operating globally, driven by mariners, engineers, coders and autonomy scientists.	Boston,   MA,USA	$12,300,000	sea-machines.com	$1M-$10M
Shone	11-50	2017	We have built the most advanced digital co-pilot in the world to help shipowners protect their people and the environment.	San Francisco, CA, USA	$4,200,000	shone.com	$1M-$10M
Buffalo Automation	11-50	2015	An artificial intelligence startup that develops autonomous navigation technology for commercial ships and recreational boats, with the goal to improve safety.	Buffalo, NY, USA	$1,900,000	buffautomation.com	$1M-$10M
Orca AI	1-10	2018	Helping crew get an accurate view of the environment in real time, and make life-altering decisions. Empowered by AI, using a combination of new tools and infrastructure, an innovative path yet to be taken in marine transportation.	Tel Aviv-Yafo,Israel	$2,600,000	orca-ai.io	$0-$1M
CaptainAI	1-10	2018	Developing the world’s first safe and fully autonomous shipping solution using high-fidelity simulation, cutting-edge sensors and state-of-the-art deep learning.	Rotterdam, Netherlands	$340,000	captainai.com	$0-$1M
RanMarine Technology	1-10	2016	Specializes in the design and development of industrial ASV’s for ports, harbours and other marine environments. Current products include the WasteShark™ used to clear plastics, bio-waste and other debris from waterways.	Rotterdam,Netherlands	$89,363	ranmarine.io	$0-$1M
Sealartec	4-10	2018	Autonomous launch and recovery systems for manned and unmanned surface vehicles. Advanced davit systems.	Be’er Sheva, Israel	$7,000	sealartec.com
Marine Tech	11-50	2014	Engineering and production of marine drones for oceanography, remote survey vehicles(RSV). Marine pollution response. Exploration and production of submarine fresh water springs.	Signes, France		marinetech.fr	$1M-$10M
Stromkind	1-10	2016	Developing innovative technology for autonomous vehicles.	Vienna, Austria		stromkind.com	$0-$1M
Beamagine	1-10	2016	Developing lidar, TOF, electro-optical and single photon sensors, with a focus on imaging cameras for robotic sensing, adapted to serve different markets.	Castellbisba, Spain		beamagine.com	$0-$1M
AquaSmartXL	1-10	2016	Remote controlled aquatic drones for inspection and surveying with 3-D models.	Rotterdam, Netherlands		aquasmartxl.com	$0-$1M
5G Marine	1-3	2016	Designing and building surveillance robots and USV’s for over 3 decades. Customers include governments and major corporations.	Fort Pierce, USA		5gmarine.com
SEA-KIT	1-10	2017	Provides Unmanned and Autonomous Solutions to the Maritime industry for a wide range of industries to perform a variety of missions	Tollesbury, UK		sea-kit.com	$0-$1M
SEAFAR	1-10	2017	Develops technology to remotely operate automated barges for inland shipping, and offer shoreside support for autonomous operations.	Antwerp, Belgium		seafar.eu	$0-$1M
SimpleUnmanned	1-10	2017	Unmanned Marine Platforms for high quality Bathymetry and Water Quality Monitoring.	Saginaw, USA		simpleunmanned.com	$0-$1M
LBRG	1-3	2018	LBRG is a consulting firm specialising in development of autonomous vessels.	Rauma, Finland		lbrg.fi
Massterly	1-10	2018	Full-service autonomous marine shipping company. A joint venture between Kongsberg Maritime and Wilhelmsen	Lysaker, Norway		massterly.com	$0-$1M
Deep Blue Globe	1-10	2018	Developing AI solutions for the maritime industry based on Earth observation data and satellite services. Optimising the journey of ships, saving time and fuel.	Darmstadt, Germany		deepblueglobe.eu	$0-$1M
blks▴il	4-10	2018	Supporting operations with a system that relieves crews from mundane tasks in the most critical times and offers support when needed.	South Boston, USA		blksail.xyz
Zulu Associates	4-10	2019	Initiator, integrator, developer and operator of innovations in the marine component of logistic chains.	Kapellen, Belgium		zulu-associates.com

SME Providers

Company Name*	Employee Count*	Company Founded Year	Company short summary*	Company City*	Total Funding	Company URL*	Estimated Revenue
Autonomous Marine Systems	1-10	2008	A marine data services company. Using fleets of sailing drones, AMS collects and transmits hydrographic data across the surface of the globe.	Somerville, MA, USA	$4,110,000	automarinesys.com	$1M-$10M
Ladar	1-10	2013	Automated collision avoidance and (semi-) submerged target detections with light-based sensor technology for the maritime and offshore industry.	The Valley, UK	$2,798,750	ladar.co.uk	$0-$1M
Harbor Wing	26-50	2003	Design, development, manufacturing, and sale of AUSVs for defense, government, commercial, environmental, domestic and international markets.	Seattle, WA, USA	$186,200	harborwingtech.com
Ocius Technology	1-10	1997	Research and development of USVs. Providing innovative autonomous solutions for maritime surveillance, oil & gas industries, and science	Randwick, Australia		ocius.com.au	$0-$1M
PortLiner	1-10	2017	With goals of zero-emissions inland shipping, PortLiner plans to build electric vessels  for river operations.	Huissen, Netherlands		portliner.nl	$0-$1M
Robert Allan	51-250	1930	Canada’s oldest privately owned consulting Naval Architectural firm. Designing high performance vessels with advanced 3D modeling.	Vancouver, Canada		ral.ca	$10M-$50M
Japan Marine Science Inc	51-250	1985	Global maritime solution consulting. Supporting Japan’s national initiative for an autonomous maritime future.	Kawasaki, Japan		jms-inc.jp
Totem Plus	1-10	1994	Develops advanced automation and navigation systems, including engine monitoring and alarm systems, voyage data recorders, and conning systems.	Ramat Hasharon, Israel		totemplus.com	$1M-$10M
ASV Global	51-250	1998	L3 ASV designs, builds, operates, sells and leases Unmanned and Autonomous Surface Vehicles.	Portchester, UK		asvglobal.com	$10M-$50M
SeaRobotics	11-50	1999	The innovator behind the HullBUG, a groundbreaking hull cleaning ROV, and the HYCAT, the leader in a family of Autonomous Surface Vehicles.	Stuart, FL, USA		searobotics.com	$1M-$10M
SeeByte	51-250	2002	Creating innovative software solutions for unmanned maritime systems. Open architecture technology provides enhanced capability, autonomy, and value to maritime systems and their users.	Edinburgh, UK		seebyte.com	$10M-$50M
Maritime Robotics	1-10	2005	Provider of innovative unmanned solutions for maritime operations and data acquisition. We develop and deliver USV systems, Moored Balloon Systems (MBS) as well as Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS).	Trondheim, Norway		maritimerobotics.com	$0-$1M
Liquid Robotics	51-250	2007	Marine robotics corporation that designs, manufactures and sells the Wave Glider, a wave and solar powered unmanned surface vehicle.	Sunnyvale, CA, USA		liquid-robotics.com	$10M-$50M
dotOcean	1-10	2008	Provides control systems for autonomous navigation of vessels and advanced situational awareness for the marine and offshore industry.	Brugge, Belgium		dotocean.eu	$1M-$10M
PowerVision	51-250	2009	Global leader in UAV technologies, including smart camera drones, data visualization and forecasting, virtual reality and augmented reality.	Beijing, China		powervision.me	$10M-$50M
Neptec Technologies	11-50	2011	Develops and manufactures laser imaging systems that integrate intelligent 3D perception scanners (LiDAR) for the Autonomous Systems market.	Ottawa, Canada		neptectechnologies.com	$1M-$10M
AutoNaut	1-10	2012	Designs and builds wave-propelled unmanned surface vessels (USV) and offers solutions based on marine autonomous systems.	Chichester, UK		autonautusv.com	$1M-$10M
Ocean Aero	11-50	2012	Using the combined surface and subsurface capability of the Ocean Aero Submaran brings a new level of autonomy, survivability, and self-sufficiency.	San Diego, CA, USA		oceanaero.com	$1M-$10M

Corporate Providers

Company Name*	Employee Count*	Company Founded Year	Company short summary*	Company City*	Total Funding	Company URL*	Estimated Revenue
Kongsberg Gruppen	1K-5K	1814	Global maritime industrial leader. Serving over 18,000 vessels. A trusted, stable technology and service delivery partner, developing integrated and intelligent solutions that optimise operations at sea.	Kongsberg, Norway		kongsberg.com	$1B-$10B
Wärtsilä	10K-50K	1834	Global leader in smart technologies and complete lifecycle solutions for the marine and energy markets. Sustainable innovation, efficiency and data analytics.	Helsinki, Finland		wartsila.com	$1B-$10B
ATLAS ELEKTRONIK	251-1K	1902	World leading supplier of naval electronics. Offering combat systems and sonars for submariners and surface combatants, minehunting and UUV’s.	Bremen, Germany		atlas-elektronik.com
Textron	10K-50K	1935	An industrial conglomerate. With brands such as Bell, Cessna, Beechcraft, E-Z-GO, and Arctic Cat, leveraging its global network of aircraft, defense, industrial and finance businesses	Providence, RI, USA		textron.com	$10B+
Rafael Advanced Defense Systems	5K-10K	1948	Pioneering advances in defense, cyber and security solutions for air, land, sea, and space. Extensive experience and understanding of combat requirements.	Haifa, Israel		rafael.co.il	$1B-$10B
Israel Aerospace Industries	10K-50K	1953	A major aerospace and aviation manufacturer, producing aerial and astronautic systems for both military and civilian usage.	Lod, Israel		iai.co.il	$1B-$10B
Elbit Systems	5K-10K	1966	International defense electronics company engaged in a wide range of programs throughout the world.	Haifa, Israel		elbitsystems.com	$1B-$10B
ABB	100K+	1988	Multinational corporation, operating mainly in robotics, power, heavy electrical equipment, and automation technology areas.	Zürich, Switzerland		abb.com	$10B+
BAE Systems	10K-50K	1999	Multinational defence, security, and aerospace company. Partnering with academic and industrial leaders developing new technologies.	London, UK		baesystems.com	$10B+
Thales Group	10K-50K	2000	Multinational company that designs and builds electrical systems and provides services for the aerospace, defence, transportation and security markets.	Paris, France		thalesgroup.com	$10B+

Funding and investment

Since 2010, $113million of venture capital has been invested in startups developing unmanned and autonomous surface ship technologies. This does not take into account significant research and development spending across large corporate entities building technology for the sector. The majority of startups in this sector are still at seed stage (56%), with only a small handful of businesses raising more than $10million.

The median average funding raised by startups in the sector is $2.6million. The mean average invested in seed stage startups in the sector is $1.47million and the mean average invested in venture stage startups is $50.4million. 

This is still a nascent technology area, with the only significant mergers and acquisition activity happening when Kongsberg acquired Rolls Royce Commercial Marine in a $600million cash deal. There are no scaleups in this sector by our definition (greater than 250 employees, less than 10 years old). Though it is possible we will see them in the next five years, the capital required and the complexity of scaling a business that is heavily reliant on hardware may mean that no single market player is able to break out before being acquired by an established corporate.

Where decision support systems and workboats rely on customers moving away from legacy manned systems, the survey drone market is opening up opportunities that were not commercially viable before. The use of survey drones is significantly cheaper than chartering manned survey vessels. This is reflected in the story of Saildrone. It is the best funded startup in the market, having raised $88.5million across four funding rounds with the most recent a $60million series B which closed in May 2018.

Patent Registrations

Worldwide there are 2,775 patents registered relating to unmanned or autonomous surface ship technologies. The first patent referencing technology for an unmanned surface vessel was filed in the UK in 1943. Patent registrations for MASS technologies have grown exponentially in the last five years. There were 55 patents registered in 2014, compared with 824 registrations in 2018.

China dominates patent registrations for MASS technology. Of 2,775 registered patents, 2,655 of them are registered in China. The 20 largest patent applicants for the technology are all Chinese companies and institutions. Powervision, a Beijing based developer of unmanned aerial and aquatic drones is the most active patent registrant, appearing as the applicant on 118 patents. Second is DJI Technology, a Shenzhen based unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturer. Despite appearing as the applicant on 83 patents, there is no evidence that DJI has released any commercial products aimed at the maritime or marine markets. Chinese academic institutions are applicants on a large number of patents. These include Dalian Maritime University, Harbin Engineering University, University of Shanghai, Wuhan University of Technology, Nanjing Technology University, and South China Technology University. It is not clear when or how these patents may be commercialised, but it is important to note that the vast majority of these patents were registered in the last five years, indicating significant Chinese research and development funding for autonomous and unmanned maritime technologies. A CSV of all relevant patent data is available on request.

Industry adoption

As previously explored, the cost savings of deploying autonomous drone vessels for survey work make for a compelling business case. Ports and harbours around the world have been testing the technology for some years, with many now rolling out the technology for regular use. Similarly, the business case for the wider hydrographic and bathymetric survey market including offshore oil and gas, renewable energy, and navigation data services is clear, with the cost of deploying autonomous and unmanned drone vessels for survey missions being as much as 90% cheaper than chartering a manned survey vessel.

For larger merchant vessels and decision support system providers a combination of legal uncertainty and a lack of clear business case makes the widespread adoption of the technology less certain. In a 2017 study, researchers found that the potential cost reduction of moving to unmanned cargo ships was only 3.4% for a bulk carrier. Though the study did not take into account increased cargo carrying capacity of unmanned vessels, the potential return is low when compared with deploying vessel performance optimisation technology on manned ships. As well as the limited business case, there is no clear legal framework for the widespread adoption of autonomous technology. The IMO has developed and released interim guidelines for MASS trials. The guidelines set out requirements for qualifications, infrastructure, risk management, safety, and reporting when conducting trials, it also sets a requirement to set out a scope and limit of a MASS trial. Beyond the guidelines and a scopic exercise, the IMO is yet to publish a timeline for legislating for the full adoption of MASS technology.

It is unlikely we will see the widespread adoption of unmanned merchant vessels without the IMO amending legislation to suit. Within territorial waters however, sovereign states have the power to legislate to make unmanned vessels a reality. China and Norway have both set up autonomous vessel testbeds in their own waters. In Norway, the Yara Birkeland will undertake trials in an autonomous test bed and a number of unmanned ferry services have been launched in the Fjords. Inland waterways are another area where unmanned and autonomous vessels are gaining traction, the relatively simple navigation requirements coupled with support from the Dutch and Belgian governments to move cargo off the roads has led to a number of autonomous barge projects entering the design phase. 

NYK Line has conducted trials of MASS technology using the IMO guidelines. To combat a predicted shortage of seafarers in Japan, the carrier’s strategy is to move to a system of manned autonomy as soon as possible. As discussed previously, other large carriers to trial autonomous and decision support technology are Maersk with Sea Machines Robotics, and CMA CGM with Shone, though no results have been published to date.

Market size and opportunities

It is estimated that in 2020 the global Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship market will be worth $1,535million, growing to be worth $5,617million by 2025, a CAGR of 28%. Most of the market growth is forecast to come from the drone and workboats sectors in the next five years. It is unlikely we will see significant growth in the large autonomous vessel market without updated legislation from the IMO and a more compelling business case.

It is clear from investment and growth figures to date that ocean surveying is a high potential market for drone suppliers. Due to their small size, sensing and survey drones are not impacted by many of the legal barriers that exist in the market for larger autonomous vessels.

As society’s awareness of the impact of human activity on the oceans grows, the demand for sensing equipment that can be deployed for a low cost will grow with it. The demand for data that can support scientific activity, or support the sustainable exploitation of ocean resources is a key emerging market that cannot be viably accessed using traditional manned survey vessels. The long term endurance and relatively inexpensive cost of autonomous drones make it possible to quickly build large datasets that can be updated continuously by drones on station. This opportunity will only be compounded in the next five years by the launch of Low Earth Orbit satellite networks that will enable the transfer of large amounts of data from vessels around the world for a relatively low cost.

Though most unmanned workboats have been developed for defence purposes to date, there is a growing number of trials and tests being conducted for the use of unmanned workboats in ports for everything from pollution control to tug operations. The size of these workboats and the fact that they will only operate in territorial waters (if not within port limits), means that they can be regulated through national legislation and in some cases through local bylaws. Similar to the drone market, this removes a key barrier to growth and there is a clear business case for the use of unmanned vessels to conduct dangerous or labour intensive jobs like operating tugs, conducting structural surveys, or conducting hydrographic surveys.

Although it is difficult to quantify, it is clear from the high level of patent activity that China will become a leading provider of unmanned and autonomous vessel technologies in the next five years. As well as benefiting from vast amounts of research and development activity from academic institutions, the wider Chinese economy is moving away from low value manufacturing in favour of high tech manufacturing and software development. Additionally, China has a thriving domestic shipping market, it is the largest supplier of seafarers in the world, and the country’s government is highly supportive, having set up a 300 square mile autonomous shipping testbed in Guangdong.

Conclusion

The MASS market is yet to live up to the hype that surrounds it. Though there is huge potential in the drone and robotics segment, growth in merchant vessel autonomy will take time, investment, and a favourable policy environment to develop fully.

It is highly likely that the number of technology providers in this space will grow, particularly in the drone and small vessel market where the technological, commercial, and legal barriers to entry are relatively low. We are yet to see evidence that the demand for decision support and autonomous systems for merchant vessels has scale. Only a small number of ship operators are conducting meaningful trials of the technologies and as yet, there has been no widespread roll out of a decision support system across a large fleet.

That said, this market is already worth over $1.5 billion annually and supports a growing number of SMEs and startups as well as becoming a key strategic area of interest for a number of corporate OEMs and defence contractors.

Though most of the development in this sector appears to have come from European and North American companies, it is important not to underestimate the importance of China as a future leader in MASS technology.  Though we are yet to see widespread commercial development of the technology in China, there is no doubt the high level of academic R&D effort will turn into commercial solutions in the next decade and that there is a large enough domestic market to support considerable growth.

As the availability of data bandwidth at sea expands, we are likely to see an explosion in the deployment of autonomous and unmanned sensing equipment at sea. This will drive much of the nearly 28% forecasted annual growth rate to 2025, and could have significant operational implications for the commercial ship operators and regulators, particularly regarding safety in congested waters.

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9 OECD Economic Outlook, OECD, 2020 

10 Manpower Report, the global supply and demand for seafarers, BIMCO, International Chamber of Shipping, 2015

11 China to Build Autonomous Ship Test-Bed, Maritime Executive, 2018